Pers Aktieblogg

En väldigt viktig sak för både den personliga ekonomin (hus…) och aktier är hur räntorna kommer att utveckla sig. Och jag tror det här finns en utbredd tro att räntorna kan sticka iväg till oanade höjder när som helst, vilket jag helt enkelt inte tror kommer hända. 70-80-talets spik upp hör till ovanligheterna och är inget man bör förvänta sig. Där vi ligger idag är mer normalt än då.

Fisher Investments förklarar detta väl.

In our view, most bond market jitters stem from a fundamental misperception: that the last several decades of falling/low long-term rates are an aberration, and sooner or later, long rates must revert to some higher mean. This seems largely tied to memories of double-digit long rates in the late 1970s and
early 1980s as the Fed tried to contain the inflation that arose from Nixon’s price controls and some severe Fed blunders. If you look at the whole of US interest rate history, however, it seems pretty clear that burst of higher rates was the aberration—not the calmer decades that followed.
Far be it from us ever to call any market environment “normal,” as that implies averages have some predictive power, but there is no logical reason that rates must be higher. As long as inflation is tame and supply drivers are benign, long rates should stay contained.
https://www.fisherinvestments.com/en-us/marketminder/is-the-oft-rumored-but-rarely-seen-bond-bear-finally-here