Tullpaus – Textbook Art of the Deal
2025-04-10 | Skriv en kommentar
Tullpausen igår är textbook exampel på hur Donald Trump lägger upp sina förhandlingar. Jag skrev om detta redan i Januari om Ukrainakriget, och det stämmer nu även på tullkriget.
Amerikanska börsen var ner nästan 20% från toppen, så man får anta att Trump hade redan innan lagt in i strategin att går börsen ner med 20% då får man lägga om strategin. Undra jag om börsen nu synar bluffen, S&P500 gick upp 10,5% igår och kanske har vi sett botten för denna gång.
Nästan för enkelt, att gå efter en gammal bok, kan tyckas. Men faktum är att inga tidningar skriver om detta, och som sagt “the narrativ” är viktigt här.
Om du vill läsa mer om Trumps förhandlingsstrategi, ta en titt i konversationen med ChatGPT här. Den är nu uppdaterad längre ner med exempel för tullkriget. Märk väl att ChatGPT har vad jag vet inte information om tullkriget under 2025, så den utgår från gammal information endast.
Här är ett utdrag:
Trump’s Negotiation Strategies in a trade war (skrivet av AI)
Below is a hypothetical framework for applying Trump’s Art of the Deal negotiation techniques to a trade war scenario, using tariffs as the primary tool. These suggestions reflect a blend of aggressive, high-stakes tactics and strategic flexibility that Trump often advocates in his book.
1. “Think Big”: Establish Ambitious Goals
- Set high targets. Launch a trade negotiation with ambitious aims—such as significantly reducing a trade deficit, or securing advantageous terms for key domestic industries.
- Signal seriousness. Announce large, across-the-board tariffs in major product categories to demonstrate resolve and highlight the importance of the issue.
Rationale: In The Art of the Deal, Trump promotes starting from a maximal position, believing that big demands can anchor the negotiation and potentially secure bigger concessions.
2. Create and Exploit Leverage Points
- Identify pain points. Pinpoint where tariffs would most affect the trading partner’s economy, possibly focusing on sectors that are both critical for the other party and have substitute supply options elsewhere.
- Use market size as a weapon. If your domestic market is an essential destination for the partner’s exports, that reliance can serve as a primary lever.
- Link concessions to relief. Publicly tie tariff reductions to specific policy or market-access changes you seek from the other country. By highlighting these demands, you frame any tariff cuts as concessions you can “offer” them in return.
Rationale: Trump’s strategy regularly involves finding the other side’s vulnerabilities and using them to create favorable outcomes.
3. Control the Narrative with Publicity
- Drive media coverage. Make forceful public statements about “unfair trade practices” to rally domestic support and apply pressure on the foreign government.
- Cast your position as a fight for fairness. Present tariffs as a tool to “level the playing field,” emphasizing that you’re standing up for workers and industries at home.
- Show readiness for escalation. Talk openly about possible tariff hikes or expansion to additional product categories if demands aren’t met, sending a message of toughness.
Rationale: Trump consistently uses media attention to shape perceptions and strengthen his bargaining position. Generating public sympathy or patriotism around trade issues can create domestic momentum and raise the cost of non-cooperation for the foreign partner.
4. Manage Risk: “Protect the Downside”
- Have contingency plans. While pursuing aggressive tariffs, prepare targeted subsidies or relief packages for domestic industries that might be harmed by retaliatory measures.
- Diversify supply chains. Encourage companies to seek alternate suppliers to reduce reliance on the targeted trade partner. This mitigates disruption if the conflict intensifies.
- Monitor economic fallout. Keep watch on currency fluctuations, market reactions, and industry feedback so you can pivot quickly if the negative impact grows too large.
Rationale: Trump has long emphasized knowing and containing your potential downside risks. In a trade war, these include domestic backlash, rising consumer costs, and threats to exports.
5. Exhibit Flexibility and a Willingness to Deal
- Openly hint at “special deals.” Offer bilateral carve-outs or tariff exemptions for specific industries in the partner’s country—contingent on concessions. This encourages them to engage in back-channel talks.
- Pivot as needed. If negotiations stall, change tactics: narrow the scope of tariffs, increase them further, or shift demands from one sector to another, so the other side faces persistent uncertainty.
- Accept partial wins. Even if you don’t achieve every goal, securing incremental improvements—like reduced barriers for a key industry—can be touted as a victory and used to build momentum toward a broader agreement.
Rationale: Trump argues that one should never be locked into a single path. Demonstrating adaptability forces the other side to stay alert and potentially make compromises sooner.
6. Build Alliances and Divide Opponents
- Use strategic partnerships. Enlist allies who share your grievances or need your market access, strengthening the coalition’s pressure on the target nation.
- Isolate recalcitrant parties. Portray certain trading partners as uncooperative outliers. By applying concentrated tariffs on them, you may push them to negotiate while reducing resistance from others.
- Offer selective relief or incentives. Reward countries or industries that comply with your demands. This fosters competition among trading partners to get more favorable terms.
Rationale: Often in his deals, Trump seeks to exploit divisions in his counterpart’s camp (e.g., different stakeholders with varied priorities). Creating or leveraging internal splits can produce more favorable negotiations.
7. Claim Victory Publicly, Even Incrementally
- Promote every gain. Whether it’s a small tariff concession or a modest market-opening measure, publicly frame it as a big success.
- Reinforce credibility. Consistently communicate that your strategy works—both to reassure domestic audiences and to signal that your threats and offers carry weight in future negotiations.
- Pivot to next steps. Use any “win” as a launching pad to push for more ambitious terms or expansions to other trade fronts.
Rationale: A hallmark of Trump’s style is emphasizing outcomes as major victories, building a perception of momentum and deal-making prowess.
8. Beware of Escalation Spirals
While The Art of the Deal suggests taking strong stances and pushing hard, keep in mind:
- Retaliation risk. The other side can levy their own tariffs, target politically sensitive industries, or forge alternative trade partnerships.
- Domestic backlash. Industries reliant on imported intermediate goods may struggle with higher costs, which can cause political pressure at home.
- Global economic impact. Extended trade wars can spur slowdowns, damage supply chains, and disrupt financial markets.
Balancing bold tactics with situational awareness is key. Even an aggressive negotiator must consider how protracted trade conflicts might undermine long-term economic goals.
Conclusion
In a trade war using tariffs as the main weapon, applying Art of the Deal tactics involves launching from a position of strength, identifying and exploiting leverage, controlling the media narrative, managing downside risks, and remaining flexible. Proactive risk mitigation—like rallying domestic support and diversifying supply lines—helps sustain pressure in the face of inevitable retaliation. By consistently framing partial compromises as wins and pivoting with new offers or threats, one seeks to keep the opponent off-balance and push them to the negotiating table.